Senegal’s domestic gas reserves will be primarily used to provide electrical energy. Authorities expect that home fuel infrastructure tasks will come on-line between 2025 and 2026, offered there isn’t a delay. The monetization of those vital energy assets is at the foundation of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the worldwide know-how group Wärtsilä performed in-depth research that analyse the economic influence of the varied gas-to-power strategies out there to Senegal. Two very different applied sciences are competing to fulfill the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gas generators (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These studies have revealed very significant system price differences between the two main gas-to-power applied sciences the country is presently contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gas engines are actually a lot better suited than combined cycle fuel generators to harness energy from Senegal’s new gas assets cost-effectively, the study reveals. Total cost differences between the 2 technologies could reach as much as 480 million USD until 2035 relying on scenarios.
Two competing and very different technologies
The state-of-the-art vitality combine models developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised power situations to determine the price optimum approach to ship new era capability for a selected nation, shows that ICE and CCGT applied sciences current important price differences for the gas-to-power newbuild program operating to 2035.
Although these two applied sciences are equally confirmed and dependable, they’re very different when it comes to the profiles during which they can function. CCGT is a know-how that has been developed for the interconnected European electricity markets, the place it may possibly operate at 90% load issue at all times. On the other hand, flexible ICE expertise can operate efficiently in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to any other technology technologies that may make up the country’s energy combine.
In specific our study reveals that when operating in an electrical energy community of restricted size corresponding to Senegal’s 1GW nationwide grid, counting on CCGTs to considerably broaden the community capacity can be extraordinarily pricey in all potential scenarios.
Cost variations between the applied sciences are explained by a quantity of factors. First of all, sizzling climates negatively impression the output of fuel generators more than it does that of gasoline engines.
Secondly, thanks to Senegal’s anticipated access to low cost home gasoline, the operating costs turn into much less impactful than the investment prices. In different phrases, as a outcome of low gas costs lower working costs, it’s financially sound for the nation to depend on ICE power plants, that are cheaper to construct.
Technology modularity additionally plays a key function. Senegal is expected to require an additional 60-80 MW of era capability every year to be able to meet the growing demand. This is way decrease than the capability of typical CCGTs crops which averages 300-400 MW that should be in-built one go, resulting in pointless expenditure. Engine power plants, on the other hand, are modular, which means they can be built exactly as and when the nation needs them, and further prolonged when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The model shows that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT crops at the expense of ICE-gas, it’ll lead to as a lot as 240 million dollars of additional value for the system by 2035. The cost distinction between the applied sciences can even increase to 350 million USD in favor of ICE know-how if Senegal additionally chooses to construct new renewable power capability within the next decade.
Risk-managing potential gas infrastructure delays
The development of fuel infrastructure is a complex and prolonged endeavour. Program delays aren’t unusual, inflicting gasoline supply disruptions that may have an enormous financial impact on the operation of CCGT plants.
เครื่องวัดแรงดันเกจที่นิยมใช้ knows one thing about that. Only last year, significant gas provide points have triggered shutdowns at a variety of the country’s largest gasoline turbine power vegetation. Because Gas generators function on a steady combustion process, they require a constant supply of gasoline and a steady dispatched load to generate consistent power output. If the provision is disrupted, shutdowns occur, putting a great strain on the overall system. ICE-Gas plants then again, are designed to regulate their operational profile over time and increase system flexibility. Because of their flexible operating profile, they were in a position to preserve a much greater level of availability
The examine took a deep dive to analyse the monetary impression of two years delay within the gas infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the country decides to speculate into gas engines, the price of gas delay could be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would lead to a staggering 770 million dollars in additional cost.
Whichever means you look at it, new ICE-Gas generation capability will reduce the whole cost of electricity in Senegal in all attainable scenarios. If Senegal is to satisfy electricity demand development in a cost-optimal method, a minimal of 300 MW of latest ICE-Gas capacity might be required by 2026.
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